April 16th, 2009 Category: Tropical Cyclones (register to rate)
Tropical Cyclone 01B (Bijli) - April 16th, 2009
TC 01B
Tropical Cyclone 01B (Bijli), located approximately 145 nautical miles east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, India, has tracked north-northwestward at 6 knots over the last 6 hours. The intensity remains at 45 knots, and maximum significant wave height is 13 feet.
The cyclone is currently situated in-between a pair of anticyclones over Myanmar and India. The NOGAPS model fields show a weak shortwave trough moving north of the system, helping induce a turn back to the East between TAU 12 and 24.
Additionally, the anticyclone over Myanmar will build south of Bijli, further steering the cyclone to the east. TC 01B is expected to make landfall near the Bangladesh/Myanmar border prior to TAU 72.
The NOGAPS and ECMWF continue to predict similar tracks; however, GFS and EGRR continue to have a much weaker depiction of the storm and do not forecast the turn to the East.
Warm sea surface temperatures and the 200 mb anticyclone aloft favor moderate intensification to 60 knots prior to landfall.
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